Government has secured £100 billion of clean energy investment
UK private clean energy capex announcements cleared £100B since the current government took office, per GOV.UK disclosure from Energy Secretary Ed Miliband at London Climate Action Week, June 23. The figure is announcement-stage, not FID-stage.
Capex composition and curve repricing
Three buckets fill the £100B. Offshore wind: up to £9B from Japan, MoU-to-FID stage. SMR nuclear: Rolls-Royce SMR booked a multi-billion-pound Sweden export contract off the back of the UK programme. Transmission: National Grid confirmed £1.2B in contracts for 1,000km of upgrade work the same Tuesday. Renewable auctions this year unlocked £27B — the largest single-parliament tranche. Capex timing diverges from output timing. Transmission: frontload spend, mid-load commissioning. Offshore wind: 3–5 year build, output post-2028. SMR: 7–10 year horizon. Front-end UK power forwards and gas-for-power spreads reprice on commissioning data. Mid-curve EUA exposure reprices on grid capex pacing. The press cycle is noise. The commissioning calendar is signal.
Reallocation geometry
IEA World Energy Investment Report 2026 reads global 2026 capex at roughly $2.2T into clean energy — renewables, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency, electrification. Oil, gas, coal combined: $1.2T. Clean-to-fossil flow ratio near 1.8x. Allied Market Research tracks fossil fuel market size at $6.3T in 2021, trajectory $10.6T by 2031, CAGR 5.3%. Total volume still grows on emerging-market demand. Capex intensity inverts the conclusion. At 5.3% CAGR, fossil reinvestment does not cover depletion. The marginal allocation dollar migrates to clean grids, storage, nuclear. That is the structural bid under forward EUA contracts, TTF calendar spreads on hydrogen substitution risk, and UK baseload power for 2030–2032 delivery.
Levels to track
UK CfD allocation round outcomes. Ofgem RIIO-T3 capex allowance releases. Rolls-Royce SMR FID dates. Sweden SMR contract milestones. Japan offshore wind tranches converting from MoU to FID. National Grid pacing against the 1,000km transmission target. IEA mid-2026 capex split update. Positioning aggregates: ICE Endex UK natural gas open interest, EEX UK power forwards 2027–2032 strip, EUA futures curve on Dec–Dec calendar spreads. Static tally trades no curve. Flow reallocation trades every tenor.