Five charts that explain the energy world right now
Reuters published five charts charting the energy world mid-2026. Direct input for positioning desks running crude, distillate, power. KPMG layers the macro lens via its 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy, executed with the Energy Institute.
Five charts, five flow signals
Macro frame: regional, divergent, disorderly
KPMG frames 2026 around three terms — regional, divergent, disorderly. Geopolitical fragmentation overrides the single global transition curve. Energy security concerns hold elevated. Rising demand persists. Translation: term structures across crude, products, and gas price region by region, not on a unified tape. Backwardation depth varies by basin. Open interest migrates toward local benchmarks. Sync between Brent and Dubai widens and narrows outside historical bands.
Coal substitution math differs region-to-region. Gas-to-power switching runs uneven against coal-to-power economics across Atlantic and Pacific basins. Distillate cracks shift on localized supply tightness rather than global draws. Power forwards bifurcate along grid-capacity matrices as new generation enters the stack at different pace points per zone.
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The grid-side pull
IndexBox projects silicon steel transformer demand growth across 2026 to 2035, anchored on grid modernization and renewable integration. Underlyings: grain-oriented electrical steel, copper, transformer tank plate. Each utility-scale project books multi-year procurement. Each MVA-rated unit locks forward tonnage against capacity expansion timelines. The signal matters for metals desks. Si-steel, copper, and hot-rolled coil spreads re-rate when transformer OEM intake confirms order certainty.
Read-through for commodity books: monitor transformer OEM order announcements against LME copper warehouse draws and silicon steel pricing relative to HRC. The ratio compresses when forward grid capex certainty lifts. It widens when order intake slips.
What to track next
Regional calendar spread divergence on Brent-Dubai, WTI-Brent, and LME copper backwardation depth. Distillate-to-gas-oil cracks as substitution math shifts under the disorderly transition. Options expiry positioning across energy and metals complexes as each driver lands. Gamma exposure at strikes tied to grid capex announcements and EIA crude prints. Crude option skew where geopolitical fragmentation lifts tail pricing in regional benchmarks.